S&P 500 Climbs to New Heights in Q2 on Rate Cut Hopes and AI Enthusiasm
The S&P 500 experienced its first real dose of volatility early in the second quarter, but expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, solid economic growth and continued strong financial performance from AI-related tech companies ultimately pushed the S&P 500 to new all-time highs and the index finished the quarter with strong gains.
While the S&P 500 hit new highs in the second quarter, the month of April was decidedly negative for markets as fears of no rate cuts in 2024 (or even a rate hike) pressured stocks. The catalyst for these concerns was the March Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose 3.5% year over year, higher than estimates. That hotter-than-expected reading reversed several months of declines in CPI and ignited fears that inflation could be “sticky” and, if so, delay expected Fed rate cuts. Those higher rate concerns were then compounded by comments by New York Fed President John Williams, who stated rate hikes (which investors assumed were over) were possible if inflation showed signs of re-accelerating. The practical impact of the hot CPI report and William’s commentary was to push rate cut expectations out from June to September and that caused the 10-year Treasury yield to rise sharply, from 4.20% at the start of the quarter to a high of 4.72%. Those higher yields pressured the S&P 500 in April, which fell 4.08% and completed its worst month since September.
On the first day of May, however, the Fed largely dispelled concerns about potential rate hikes and ignited a rebound that ultimately carried the S&P 500 to new highs. At the May 1 FOMC decision, Fed Chair Powell essentially shut the proverbial door on the possibility of rate hikes, stating that if the Fed was concerned about inflation, it would likely just keep interest rates at current levels for a longer period instead of raising them. That comment provided immediate relief for investors and both stocks and bonds rallied early in May as rate hike fears subsided. Then, later in the month, the April CPI report (released in mid-May) rose 3.4% year over year, slightly lower than the 3.5% in March and that resumption of disinflation (the decline in inflation) further increased expectations for rate cuts in 2024. Additionally, employment data moderated in May, with the April jobs report coming in below expectations (but still at healthy levels). The practical result of the resumption of disinflation, the supportive Fed commentary and moderating labor market data was to increase September rate cut expectations, push the 10-year Treasury yield back down below 4.50% and spark a 4.96% rally in the S&P 500 in May.
The upward momentum continued in June thanks to more positive news on inflation, additional reassuring commentary from the Fed and strong AI-linked tech earnings. First, the May CPI (released in mid-June) declined to 3.3% year over year, the lowest level since February. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, dropped to the lowest level since April 2021, further confirming ongoing disinflation. Then, at the June FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell reassured markets two rate cuts are entirely possible in 2024, reinforcing market expectations for a September rate cut. Economic data, meanwhile, showed continued moderation of activity and that slowing growth and falling inflation helped to push the 10-year Treasury yield close to 4.20%, a multi-month low. Finally, investor excitement for AI remained extreme in June, as strong AI-driven earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and Broadcom (AVGO) along with news Apple (AAPL) was integrating AI technology into future iPhones pushed tech stocks higher and that, combined with falling Treasury yields and rising rate cut expectations, sent the S&P 500 to new all-time highs above 5,500.
In sum, markets impressively rebounded from April declines and the S&P 500 hit a new high thanks to increased rate cut expectations, falling Treasury yields and continued robust earnings growth from AI-linked tech companies.
Second Quarter Performance Review
The second quarter produced a more mixed performance across various markets than the strong return in the S&P 500 might imply, as AI-driven tech-stock enthusiasm again powered the Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher while other major indices lagged. The Nasdaq was, by far, the best performing major index in the second quarter while the S&P 500, where tech is the largest sector weighting, also logged a solidly positive gain. Less tech focused indices didn’t fare as well, however, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-cap focused Russell 2000 posted negative quarterly returns.
By market capitalization, large caps outperformed small caps in Q2, as they did in the first quarter of 2024. Initially, higher Treasury yields in April weighed on small caps, while late in the second quarter economic growth concerns pressured the Russell 2000.
From an investment style standpoint, growth massively outperformed value in the second quarter, as tech-heavy growth funds once again benefited from continued AI enthusiasm. Value funds, which have larger weightings towards financials and industrials, posted a slightly negative quarterly return as the performance of non-tech sectors more reflected growing concerns about economic growth.
On a sector level, performance was decidedly mixed as only four of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the second quarter with positive returns. The best performing sectors in the second quarter were the AI-linked technology and communications services sectors. They posted strong returns, aided by better-than-expected earnings results from NVDA, ORCL, AVGO, TSM, MSFT, AMZN and others as AI enthusiasm continued to push the broad tech sector and S&P 500 higher. Utilities also logged a modestly positive quarterly return, as the high yields and resilient business models were attractive to investors given rising concerns about future economic growth, while declining Treasury yields made higher dividend sectors such as utilities more attractive to income investors.
Turning to the sector laggards, the energy, materials, and industrials sectors closed the quarter with modestly negative returns. Their declines reflected growing anxiety about future economic growth as those sectors, along with small-cap stocks, are more sensitive to changes in U.S. and global growth.
Internationally, emerging markets outperformed the S&P 500 in Q2 thanks to optimism towards a rebound in Chinese economic growth and as falling global bond yields late in the quarter boosted the attractiveness of emerging market investments. Foreign developed markets, meanwhile, lagged both emerging markets and the S&P 500 and posted a fractionally negative quarterly return. Concerns about the timing and number of Bank of England and European Central Bank rate cuts, along with French and German political concerns later in the quarter, acted as headwinds for foreign developed equities.
Commodities saw slight gains in the second quarter thanks to aforementioned optimism on Chinese economic growth and as geopolitical concerns rose throughout the quarter. Gold rallied solidly on the uptick in geopolitical risks, following the tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran, along with the growing chances of a direct Israel/Hezbollah conflict. Oil, meanwhile, logged a small loss on signs of slipping OPEC+ production discipline and concerns about future global growth and demand.
Switching to fixed income markets, the leading benchmark for bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index) realized a slightly positive return for the second quarter, as rising expectations for a September Fed rate cut and moderating U.S. economic growth boosted bonds broadly.
Looking deeper into the fixed income markets, shorter-duration bonds outperformed those with longer durations in the second quarter, as bond investors priced in sooner-than-later Fed rate cuts. Longer-dated bonds, meanwhile, were little changed on the quarter despite the return of disinflation and moderating U.S. economic growth.
Turning to the corporate bond market, lower-quality, but higher-yielding “junk” bonds rose modestly in the second quarter, while higher-rated, investment-grade debt logged only a slight decline in Q2. That performance gap reflected continued investor optimism towards corporate profits despite some disappointing economic reports, which led to bond investors taking more risk in exchange for a higher return.
Third Quarter Market Outlook
Stocks begin the third quarter of 2024 riding a wave of optimism and positive news as inflation is declining in earnest, the Fed may deliver the first-rate cut in over four years this September, economic growth remains generally solid and substantial earnings growth from AI-linked tech companies has shown no signs of slowing down.
Those positives and optimism are reflected in the fact that the S&P 500 has made more than 30 new highs so far in 2024 and is trading at levels that, historically speaking, are richly valued. That said, if inflation continues to decline, economic growth stays solid, and the Fed delivers on a September cut, absent any other major surprises, it’s reasonable to expect this strong 2024 rally to continue in Q3.
However, while the outlook for stocks is undoubtedly positive right now, market history has shown us that nothing is guaranteed. As such, we must be constantly aware of events that can change the market dynamic, as we do not want to get blindsided by sudden volatility.
To that point, the market does face risks as we start the third quarter. Slowing economic growth, disappointment if the Fed doesn’t cut rates in September, underwhelming Q2 earnings results (out in July), a rebound in inflation and geopolitical surprises (including the looming U.S. elections) are all potential negatives. And, given high levels of investor optimism and current market valuations, any of those events could cause a pullback in markets similar to what was experienced in April (or worse).
While any of those risks (either by themselves or in combination with one another) could result in a drop in stocks or bond prices, the risk of slowing economic growth is perhaps the most substantial threat to this incredible 2024 rally. To that point, for the first time in years, economic data is pointing to a clear loss of economic momentum. So far, the market has welcomed that moderation in growth because it has increased the chances of a September rate cut. However, if growth begins to slow more than expected and concerns about an economic contraction increase, that would be a new, material negative for markets. Because of that risk, we will be monitoring economic data very closely in the coming months.
Bottom line, the outlook for stocks remains positive but that should not be confused with a risk-free environment. There are real risks to this historic rally and we will continue to monitor them closely in the coming quarter.
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